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Strategies
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Significance of Volume

As we look at the components of technical analysis let’s not get so burdened in the analysis that we forget why investors are in the stock market! When analysts start looking at five and ten minute charts they are looking for quick profits using day trading. You can make money using this approach and we agree that this is good strategy. However, it is not the strategy of whentobuy.com.

In all strategies and techniques in whentobuy.com research is relative to range bound stocks over some short time period. We must constantly remind ourselves of the goals we are attempting to achieve in order to remain focused on consistent profits.

The stock market is really no different than your local flea market or automobile dealership! Buyers and sellers coming together in order to their sell wares, each attempting to get the best price. Buyers want to buy low and sellers want to sell at higher prices. Creating excitement and convincing buyers that the higher price is justified creates higher profit margins and allows to seller to sell more items.

As long as there are willing sellers and buyers there is liquidity. Liquidity is then directly proportional to the amount of sellers and buyers. For this reason in all analysis of range bound stocks we look for specific volume levels. Adding to our screens volume levels at specific thresholds finds stocks that simply have willing sellers and buyers.





There is a direct relationship between price and volume. In the charts presented throughout the whentobuy.com web site we show price using candlestick charting and corresponding volume bar charts. The charts from StockCharts.com use a color-coding system of red and black. Red signifying the price of the stock closed lower than the previous days closing price (i.e. down day) and black signifying the price of the stock closed higher than the previous days closing price (i.e. up day).

The candlestick price bars are also color-coded. White bars signifying the stock price closed higher than the days opening price. Red bars signifying the stock price closed lower than its opening price for the day. Candlestick charting does not use the previous day closing price. This means a stock could close lower than the previous day's closing price and still have a white bar as long as its closing price is higher than its opening price.

Generally, as price is rising there is also a corresponding rise in volume. Occasionally there is a divergence between a positive volume bar (black) and a positive Candlestick price bar (white). A stock could close higher than the previous day's close with its opening price being lower than its closing price. This would generate a black or positive volume bar, but a red or negative candlestick bar. The Intersil, Inc (ISIL) chart below depicts this divergence of price and volume.



On January 23, 2002 ISIL closed higher than the previous day close with a spike in volume as indicated by a black volume bar. The candlestick price bar was red signifying it closed lower than it opened. Let’s look at the prices by day:


Notice ISIL closed on 1-22-2002 at $25.52 yet someone purchased the stock at the open on 1-23-2002 for $28.56. A $3.04 higher opening price than the closing price on the previous day!

An automobile dealer places a sticker on the window of each car being sold. It is up to each buyer to pay that price or make an offer lower than the sticker price to buy the automobile. There really is not any difference between the car sale and the stock sale. The market makers change the opening price from yesterday’s close by $3.04. If someone is willing to buy the stock at the higher price the market maker walks away with a nice profit!

There are many factors that influence price and volume. Some of these factors are real and some are manufactured just like the opening price example in the ISIL stock.

For this reason volume is not as simple as looking for percentage increases. There are several abnormalities like the difference between the previous day close and the opening price the following day. Some of those abnormalities are seen below:

  • Rallies with lower volume

  • Declines with rising Volume

  • Upside breakout with consistent volume

  • Downward breakout with consistent volume




While stocks are in a range bound cycle factors such as price, the historical number of days left in the cycle and volume are analyzed. In determining when to buy and when to sell the following list illustrates some of the factors considered:

  • Generally, volume follows trend, that is in a rising trend or rally volume should rise and volume should reduce on declines.


  • A dramatic reversal will normally occur when volume reduces after an extended rally, or when volume rises sharply after an extended decline.


  • Volume and volatility contract in consolidation patterns because investors are undecided.


  • Volume should expand significantly for upside breakouts. If volume does not expand the breakout is artificial and will end abruptly.


  • Volume may not reduce for a downside move because falling share prices cause demoralization among stockholders. During this circumstance fewer shares are required to drive prices lower.
Whentobuy.com does not evaluate the real or perceived changes in volume it only profits from them! Want to learn more? Join now!



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Whentobuy.com and this newsletter are provided for educational purposes only. No statement in the documents should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. It is possible at this or some subsequent time, the editors or staff of whentobuy.com may own, buy or sell securities discussed. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. Before trading stocks or options you should understand the risks. In addition, anytime a stock or option is purchased or sold, transaction costs including brokerage fees are at risk. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness.





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